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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still